The Future of Tourism: A Personal Speculation

Tourism has had a period of almost continuous growth since the end of the Second World War. Nearly all global forecasts are experiencing this growth continuing well into the next century. However, the recent down turn in the economies of East Asia raises substantial questions as to the usually optimistic picture of the future that is painted by official sources at the national, regional and international scales. This paper therefore provides some personal speculations on the key political, economic, environmental, social and technological factors that will influence the future of tourism and postulates what that future might look like.